George Carlin, Circa 1978...
Disclaimer: This post is just a reaction to something I was not nearly expecting to see on HBO in the year 2006....a George Carlin Comedy Special from Phoenix, recorded the seemingly ancient year of 1978...A.D. for those smartasses out there. Whilist I might be a great fan of Mr. Carlin, I could not help but think how cumbersome it would be to perform comedy in the round tethered down to a wired microphone.
Putting myself in the shoes of the layman, or even in what I can best describe as "my" shoes in that time period, I ask myself, "would I, or would anyone at that time be able to even conceive of a time, an era, when thoughts of being bound by mere physical wires are but a fleeting, if even, a thought?"
What I surmise, is that in the late 1970's, besides the more visionary Electrical and Electronic Engineers, the so-called "futurists" (and Trekkies, self-admittedly), and their ilk, very few people in modern society could fathom such a reality. While most everyone in such society knew about radio, few, I presume ventured so far as to imagine that such technology could eliminate the wire between tv and cable jack, handset and phone jack, etc, and even go so far as to conclude that one day human communication, whether voice, video, and/or data would be almost completely unbound by the physical wires of the day.
Fast forward thirty years.
Who amongst us can imagine the unimaginable technological advances that will inevitably alter not only the technological landscape, but also the fundamental way that humankind goes about its every day life. Such mental exercizes are likely to perplex even the most educated and experienced mind, as, amongst other obstacles, efficient market theory tells us, even predicting the near, or immediate future with much accuracy is, over time, a futile endeavor.
So what's next? What will be the 'wireless revolution' of our time? What is going to be the next great, revloutionary technology of our generation? And, furthermore, how are we to identify this next killer app? This post is not meant to be definitive, nor explicitely clear, but more philosophical in nature. The nature of innovation is no certain nature at all. As technology and our technological capacities and understanding increase over time at a near exponential rate, increasingly approaching the bounds of current understanding (e.g. the upper limit of Moore's Law), how are we to manage the way we approach even greater innovation. While this might seem like a veritable Catch-22, and in truth it may be, I am confident that humankind will continue, given a relatively stable set of geopolitical/economic variables, to push the proverbial envelope.
The salient question at this point however should be clear, and that is HOW we are to continue our upward momentum. Tonight though, I'm not going to say anything more than, that I am confident that as always, time, will tell.
Putting myself in the shoes of the layman, or even in what I can best describe as "my" shoes in that time period, I ask myself, "would I, or would anyone at that time be able to even conceive of a time, an era, when thoughts of being bound by mere physical wires are but a fleeting, if even, a thought?"
What I surmise, is that in the late 1970's, besides the more visionary Electrical and Electronic Engineers, the so-called "futurists" (and Trekkies, self-admittedly), and their ilk, very few people in modern society could fathom such a reality. While most everyone in such society knew about radio, few, I presume ventured so far as to imagine that such technology could eliminate the wire between tv and cable jack, handset and phone jack, etc, and even go so far as to conclude that one day human communication, whether voice, video, and/or data would be almost completely unbound by the physical wires of the day.
Fast forward thirty years.
Who amongst us can imagine the unimaginable technological advances that will inevitably alter not only the technological landscape, but also the fundamental way that humankind goes about its every day life. Such mental exercizes are likely to perplex even the most educated and experienced mind, as, amongst other obstacles, efficient market theory tells us, even predicting the near, or immediate future with much accuracy is, over time, a futile endeavor.
So what's next? What will be the 'wireless revolution' of our time? What is going to be the next great, revloutionary technology of our generation? And, furthermore, how are we to identify this next killer app? This post is not meant to be definitive, nor explicitely clear, but more philosophical in nature. The nature of innovation is no certain nature at all. As technology and our technological capacities and understanding increase over time at a near exponential rate, increasingly approaching the bounds of current understanding (e.g. the upper limit of Moore's Law), how are we to manage the way we approach even greater innovation. While this might seem like a veritable Catch-22, and in truth it may be, I am confident that humankind will continue, given a relatively stable set of geopolitical/economic variables, to push the proverbial envelope.
The salient question at this point however should be clear, and that is HOW we are to continue our upward momentum. Tonight though, I'm not going to say anything more than, that I am confident that as always, time, will tell.
posted by Gordon Gekko at
1:45 AM
1 Comments:
Dear Gordon,
Technology will undoubtedly advance and the markets will inevitably stay quasi-efficient. However, do recall that governments fund programs which are frequently indicative of what the future might bring. Much of the research right now is concerntrated on physics, and physics -- beleive it or not -- does, has and will continue to have an effect on the markets. The reason that you have MySpace is because the U.S. government made the internet possible. BPL is available because physical advances that permit DSL technology exist in the first place.
I would not be the one to tell you how the next "wireless revolution" will hit us, as I am relatively internet/tech "non-savvy." However, I too, am confident and optimistic about the economy (though less sure about the long run). So far as technology goes for the next decade or three: One new "super-wireless" development that I am aware of, which will be significant is improved space travel. This will probably happen as better sources of energy are harnessed and discovered both here, and extraterrestrially. For example, mining -- and not for natural gas -- is probably making a comeback. Japan, China, Russia, and probably US eventually are planning to build permanent lunar bases starting as early as 2015 (ETA: 9 years). The Moon will be mined for Eearth-rare isotopes of helium, which will facilitate thermonuclear fusion. Russia intends to stop using coal like that eventually, but mining is set to start only in 2020. Go price that into the 30-year debentures. Anyways, these and other advances will make quantum computing possible in due time. The effects of that latter invention may certainly prove to be revolutionary. If it happens -- and it probably will -- it sounds akin to the transistor revolution.
In fact, it does not appear that even teleportation is entirely out of the question when we begin to manufacture these new super-fast computing/communication machines. The Trekkies, whom you mention in your blog, indeed predicted something. It wasn't only the lack of wires that you describe, either. Ultimately, quantum computing may be able to predict the vibrations of the basic building blocks of life (and hence of things, energy) so well that this would allow atomic-level disassmeblement of physical objects. The basic principle that Trekkies envisioned for teleportation apparently trickled down to science. Hardcore research that started with Einstein basically led the academic community in that direction, alebit teleports are not a feasible technology yet and are a discredited issue to many (if not most!) scentists. On the one hand, separate photons have been teleported; on the other, making quantum computers remains a technical impossibility and straight up a theory, however plausible. When we get there, teleportation will quite possibly pose issues now heard in the cloning debates worldwide. The de- and re-construction of physical objects would "output" either of two things: the "thing's" essence elsewhere, or a quasi-photo copy thereof. When I was reading stuff about this, the latter appeared as the more likely/safe scenario. Man-made animals and "human parts," inasmuch as other unmanned technologies (i.e. computers coupled with robotics) are likely in the next decade or two. These will move the market, just like Bluetooth, which will probably go public shortly. For all we know, however, it will be bought out by Genzyme, before it merges with Microsoft. Will this happen before BPL is truly commercialized? Not sure, but the relation to Bluetooth is certainly importamt, i.e. from my layman perspective. Can Bluetooth be used to beam a better DSL uplink from a powerline?
No one knows the future, you got that right. However, oil and coal are going to be phased out in certain counries and nuclear power, if not in Iran, is going public for sure. This will happen in the next 2 decades. What else? Jobs have already been replaced by many "unmanned technologies," but GM (and others) still have more to export. The problems, which subsequently arise are political, inasmuch as they are economic; they are short- and long-term dilemmas for pricing behaviors. Similarly, improved and cheaper transport technologies are conveivable, whereby prices on core servises and commodities can be permanently affected. No one knows exactly how humans will behave, but we do know a lot about where they're going.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home